Meet SIR-CA

Susceptible
Infected
Recovered
Cellular
Automata

Project Title: School's Out?
                     Designing Epidemic Containment Strategies
                     with a Spatial Stochastic Method

   The Basics
   A Typical Run
From a qualitative standpoint, a simulated epidemic started from one spot
and then spread out across the grid, like a bacteria culture. Eventually it
died out as there weren’t enough susceptible people nearby to infect,
leaving some areas intact.

     

Numerically, the CA model in this work showed a slight peak in number
of infected (red), while the number of recovered (green) followed a
Logistic growth pattern. Hence, the CA model is in accordance with
the traditional Kermack-McKendrick Model.


   The paper
        Designing Epidemic Containment Strategies with a Spatial Stochastic Method (pdf)
   Verification with Novel H1N1 Surveillance Data